Experts weighed in on what to expect in the year ahead at Calgary Economic Development’s 2026 Economic Outlook, powered by ATB Financial, on Nov. 19, 2025. An event replay will be available on our YouTube channel.
Global uncertainty, shifting trade dynamics and domestic policy pressures are top of mind for Calgary’s business community heading into next year. At 2026 Economic Outlook, hosted by Calgary Economic Development and powered by ATB Financial, Calgary’s business and civic leaders heard from speakers who emphasized that diversification and innovation remain the city’s most effective tools for navigating a more challenging economic climate.
The event brought together economists, policymakers and industry leaders for an assessment of the forces influencing Calgary’s outlook. With slowing global growth and heightened geopolitical risk setting the context, presenters outlined the pressures facing the city and the areas where Calgary continues to hold competitive advantages.
A complex backdrop heading into 2026
Calgary’s unemployment rate sits at 7.9 per cent, above the national average of 6.9 per cent, with youth unemployment the second highest in the country. Yet Calgary continues to lead Canada in job growth and maintains the highest labour market participation and employment rates nationwide.
The City of Calgary projects local economic growth of 2.4 per cent in 2026 while population growth and inflation should remain around two per cent. While experts anticipate this will ease pressures associated with growth and affordability, uncertainty is still top of mind for Calgary businesses.
“Calgary is growing very quickly, the economy around us is shifting and families and businesses are feeling real pressure," said Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas.
“It's in times like these that the city's job is to be steady, focused and united. And that's the mindset that our brand new city council is bringing into this budget — discipline, clarity and teamwork.”
Broadening global markets and scaling innovation
With global trade dynamics expected to remain volatile, Calgary Economic Development (CED) outlined new measures to help local companies diversify beyond traditional markets. CED is expanding its trade services through the Trade Accelerator Program and the soon-to-launch Level Up program with tailored supports aimed at helping firms leverage international agreements and grow into Europe, Asia and the United Arab Emirates.
“We need to be intentional about how we build the economy of the future. That means diversifying our markets, supporting innovators and giving Calgary companies the tools to grow and compete globally,” said Brad Parry, President and CEO, Calgary Economic Development and CEO, Opportunity Calgary Investment Fund.
While Alberta is creating jobs at a faster rate than the rest of the country, it’s still experiencing higher than average unemployment rates, said ATB Financial Vice-President and Chief Economist Mark Parsons.
“The problem is we're adding more people at an even faster rate,” said Parsons, noting Alberta saw more than 200,000 new residents in 2024 alone — 100,000 of them in Calgary.
“We're in this really odd position where we're leading the country in job growth, but we have recession like levels of unemployment — it's not because there's mass layoffs, it's just because we can't keep pace.”
To respond to this challenge, Parsons emphasized the importance of matching skills of new residents to areas of highest demand and investing in workforce development to ensure the province’s economic growth can keep pace with its rapid population gains.
ATB Financial’s latest analysis shows Alberta continues to weather global turbulence more effectively than many provinces, supported by strong population growth, construction activity and improved Asian market access for energy.
But risks remain — including escalating trade tensions, potential removal of CUSMA exemptions and volatility in oil prices.
As global political uncertainty continues to reshape trade flows, investment decisions and economic sentiment, keynote speaker Andrew Coyne offered a wide-angle view of the forces influencing Canada’s outlook — from shifting U.S. policy to rising protectionism and the pressure it places on export-driven provinces like Alberta.
He said in retrospect, today’s challenges will be seen as the “halcyon days of tranquil instability compared to what is to come.”
"If you're making plans on the basis that things will be roughly like they are now, I urge you to adjust your plans and think about how much worse it can get, how crazy it can get," said Coyne.
How regulation impacts innovation
Parry explained that a sharp growth in regulations over the last 15 years — amounting to close to 87,000 new regulations at the federal level alone — has been a drag on innovation nationwide and in Calgary. Statistics Canada research shows the increasing federal regulatory burden has amounted to a 1.7 per cent hit to national GDP, a 1.3 per cent reduction in employment growth and a nine per cent drop in business investment.
“Regulation is impeding our ability to innovate, and it's stifling our economy,” said Parry.
“Instead of a culture of regulation, we need to create an environment where our dreamers, our doers, our builders and our blue sky thinkers can succeed. If we want to build a more resilient, diversified economy, our focus needs to be on innovation.”
Coyne said Canada needs to stop treating innovation as if it were a “scientific process.”
“We need to start thinking about it as an economic process,” he said.
“What really moves the needle is if every manager at every one of the 1.4 million businesses across the country lies awake at night saying to him or herself, what am I going to do tomorrow to make my company more efficient?”
CED is accelerating the implementation of Calgary’s Innovation Strategy — a long-term economic blueprint designed to build sector-specific innovation nodes and funding networks across the city. These investments aim to support company growth, commercialization and collaboration across tech, energy transformation, aviation, agri-food, creative industries and more.
Successful delivery of the strategy is expected to add 187,000 jobs and contribute over $28 billion to Calgary’s economy by 2034.
Calgary’s long-term economic action plan, Uplook, anchors this work by providing a clear roadmap for how the city can strengthen its economy through diversification, support for emerging industries and a commitment to shared prosperity.
Collaboration leads the way in Calgary
Across the program, leaders emphasized that Calgary’s advantage continues to come from collaboration — from a business community that works shoulder-to-shoulder, and from Team Calgary partners whose shared commitment helps drive investment, innovation and long-term economic momentum.
“Our city is transforming faster than at any point in a generation, and that momentum comes from leaders across Calgary working together to build a resilient, future-ready economy,” said Navin Arora, Board Chair, Calgary Economic Development.
2026 Economic Outlook was presented by ATB Financial, with support from VIP Networking Sponsor WSP; AV partner Encore; gold sponsors CAAT Pension, EY, the Calgary Herald and Rogers; and silver sponsors Alberta Blue Cross, CPHR Alberta, Mount Royal University, PCL, Stone-Olafson and the University of Calgary.
For more insights from 2026 Economic Outlook, watch it in the coming days on our YouTube channel. Learn more about how our Team Calgary partners are helping shape the city’s economic future.